Newmark Grubb Zimmer

Peer cities look to KC during market challenges

Chris Robertson, CCIM, managing director - investment sales and capital markets at Newmark Grubb Zimmer, joined moderator Frank Sciara, CCIM, president of the Kansas City CCIM chapter and vice president with Grandbridge Real Estate Capital, last week for a live webinar discussion sponsored by the local CCIM chapter to discuss the current local investment sales market.

Robertson noted that there has been a decrease of approximately 20 to 25% in volume as of the end of the second quarter as compared to the same period in 2019. But, Robertson remains optimistic about the market going forward over the next six to twelve months.

“It seems like ever since the Fourth of July, somebody flipped a switch and everybody’s been busy and it seems like people are starting to get out and tour properties,” Robertson said.

Robertson has received calls from and is working with groups from some peer cities such as Nashville, Minneapolis, Denver and Indianapolis, as well as groups from Utah, California and New York, who are looking to markets like Kansas City trying to find additional yield. 

Robertson said that these investors are finding a 50 to 150 basis point premium to what they are seeing in their markets, particularly the markets on the east and west coasts.

“This might be odd to say, but I think COVID will ultimately help continue to drive demand to some of our more stable midwestern markets like Kansas City where you don’t see a lot of fluctuations in valuations,” said Robertson.

Robertson discussed the effect of COVID-19 on the cap rates of the various property types.

He said that there is still quite a bit of price discovery with regard to the retail segment because “no one knows what that sector is going to look like long-term.”

However, he said there are a few bright spots in retail, noting that single tenant, long-term investments in essential services (eg., Dollar General, CVS, Walgreens) are doing well for investors seeking stability and quality credit tenants.

“And in some of those cases, we’ve actually seen cap rates compress slightly just because there’s not a lot of product on the market and those are in high demand,” said Robertson.

Robertson said office has seem some good activity, primarily stabilized long-term assets in good locations with a good weighted average lease term. He noted that 9300 and 9400 Ward Parkway sold to a New York-based group during the pandemic for $121 million at a 7.32 cap rate. 

Robertson said the industrial market remains “red hot,” with significant demand both locally and nationally, while multifamily remains competitive, without any major shifts in cap rates. Uncertainty remains in the hospitality market as investors are trying to determine what pricing is going to look like as occupancies start bounce back.

“We’ve seen a lot of the large players come into Kansas City looking for larger portfolios of assets. We’ve had calls from groups in Israel and Canada looking to place funds here in Kansas City as they’ve taken note of the absorption numbers and the amount of new development we’ve had here in Kansas City,” said Robertson.

Kassie Murphy with Newmark Grubb Zimmer

This week’s MWM Broker Spotlight features Kassie Murphy, associate with Newmark Grubb Zimmer, who specializes in sales and leasing of retail properties in the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas.

RT: What was your lightbulb moment to get into commercial real estate?

I have always been fascinated by the structure and set up of communities, specifically how our communities are built and changed. Commercial real estate has always sparked my interest because you are at the forefront of seeing properties change hands, tenants making moves and ultimately how that shapes the communities we live in.

RT: Who do you mentor?

I enjoy mentoring clients on the process of commercial real estate – whether they are leasing or buying. I also love when I talk with somebody considering starting a new business. Being an entrepreneur myself, it is exciting to talk with like-minded people who are ready to take risks and make big changes. I also enjoy mentoring those that are just starting out in commercial real estate, and am always happy to help in whatever ways I can.

RT: What gets you excited to get to work every day?

I love that every day is different in the brokerage world. I get to talk with a variety of people - from a new business concept, somebody that is just starting to look for their perfect space, or a landlord that is looking to reinvent their shopping center to name a few. I also get excited to learn about new projects, discover new properties and learn about how our city is changing through the commercial real estate world.

RT: What keeps you up at night about commercial real estate?

Questioning the true impacts of COVID-19 on commercial real estate and business in general. I think we will continue to see the impacts, both positive and negative, in the coming months and even years.

RT: When did you get your CCIM/other continuing education and how has it affected your career?

I received my Masters in Entrepreneurial Real Estate from UMKC in 2017. During the program, I was working at Newmark Grubb Zimmer as a property manager. Continuing my education, focused on commercial real estate, it really opened me up to other possibilities within the world of CRE. It also gave me more confidence in my knowledge and abilities that I gained and already had to pursue a different path in commercial real estate.

In addition, I have real world experience of owning a women’s clothing boutique - en·sem·ble in downtown Overland Park (Kan.). Going through the commercial real estate leasing process firsthand in the retail world gives me the ability to relate to tenants who are going through the same process. I am also able to talk about the current environment with COVID-19 and how that has impacted retail.

RT: How do you keep your skills sharp in this competitive climate?

I stay in tune with what is happening in the Kansas City market and beyond through networking groups and events (CREW, ICSC, ULI, etc.), talking with everyone from business/retail owners, landlords, tenants and participating in market update calls, both in the Kansas City market and beyond. Above all, the collaboration between our brokerage team at NGZ has been crucial to not only sharpen my skills, but keep me motivated.

RT: What deal do you wish for in your future portfolio?

I would love to connect with a new retailer/franchisee that sees the opportunity of Kansas City and is looking to grow with multiple locations in the market.

RT: What does a Kansas City CRE Comeback look like you?

I envision commercial real estate, specifically related to the retail sector, seeing a world of retailers recreating themselves to provide an elevated experience to customers. COVID or not, I think customers are asking for more when it comes to shopping and dining. Efficiency, customer service and unique experience are going to be key when it comes to retailers making a comeback. This will inevitably impact the types of deals being made in commercial real estate. I also think we will see more creativity for use of the larger department stores/retailers going dark. Kansas City has always been great at creativity and thinking outside the box – so I am excited to see what the next world of retailers brings to the CRE world!

RT: How can prospects contact you for more information?

I can be reached via my cell phone at 913-424-5418 or by email at kmurphy@ngzimmer.com. I can connect over the phone/via email but also enjoy meeting new prospects in person to really to get to know them!

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Staying true to MetroWire Media’s focus on all things commercial real estate, we have added a new, feature column: MWM's BROKER SPOTLIGHT.

The goal is to provide our readers with direct insight to Kansas City’s brightest, up-and-coming CRE professionals.

Discover the true brains behind the build - including their professional focus, career paths, future plans, goals and more.

Know a broker, developer or other KC CRE pro who deserves to be featured in the MWM Spotlight? Please send details to kcnews@metrowiremedia.com.

MWM's 2020 Forecast Panel consensus: KC market is booming

MWM panelists Tim Cowden, president and CEO of KCADC; Nick Suarez, SIOR, CCIM, senior managing director and principal at Newmark Grubb Zimmer; Tim Homburg, co-president of NSPJ Architects; David Caffrey, chief lending officer at Country Club Bank; Todd LaSala, partner at Stinson, LLP; and moderator, Chris Vaeth, vice president, business unit leader at McCownGordon all agree — the Kansas City commercial real estate market is booming.

A summary of the panelists’ remarks from last week’s MWM 2020 Market Forecast event follows:

ON BOOMING KANSAS CITY MARKET:

Tim Cowden, KCADC: “I’m really excited about 2020 because we are coming off a really great 2019. There is a lot of momentum in the market. Our pipeline is full. Kansas City is ascending.”

Tim Homburg, NSPJ: “We see Kansas City maturing into a nice, large-sized metro area. We don’t need to rely on any single one thing to keep the wheels churning for Kansas City because there are multiple different locations around the whole metro area that make it exciting.”

Chris Vaeth, McCownGordon: “The reality is that it’s great right now. The market is doing well; the economy is doing well; and Kansas City has been a robust place to work and live the last several years. There’s a lot of growth, a lot of opportunity. However, 2020 can be a pivotal year. You can’t help but follow the news to see what’s going on. You’ve got to ride it while you have it.”

ON MULTIFAMILY MARKET:

Tim Homburg, NSPJ: “People are coming into the metro area so there is going to be a housing need. Housing will drive a lot of the growth in Kansas City, and we’re seeing very positive signs on the multi-family side coming into this next year. A single family home 15 years ago that was $175,000 is now $350,000 and so people are staying in multifamily “for rent” product longer until they build up the wealth to get to that breaking moment in their life when they can afford the down payment on that $350,000 starter home.

We’ve never seen an oversupply [of multifamily product in Kansas City]. We’re pacing with what the demand is.”

ON OFFICE MARKET:

Nick Suarez, Newmark Grubb Zimmer: “Right now the office market is strong. The vacancy rate is right around eight and one-half percent. We do see rental rates increase slightly across the market. The big issue we have is just the lack of big blocks of quality space, but that’s all going to change [with projects like Strata and the Platform Ventures Building downtown].

Not only will our skyline be changing, we’re also going to have property that is going to be able to compete with all of our peer cities. But, it’s not just downtown. All over the city we’re seeing a lot of new projects [like the Edison District in downtown Overland Park and CityPlace at U.S. 69 Highway and College Boulevard]. It’s an exciting tine to be in the business.”

ON TRUCE BETWEEN KANSAS AND MISSOURI:

Todd LaSala, Stinson: “The two states have finally agreed that you will not treat jobs for border counties that are leaving one side [of the state line] and moving to the other as net new jobs. [The truce] really does level the playing field for us and it’s sort of a new day for us in this market.”

Tim Cowden, KCADC: “It’s good for the region because we can focus now on net new from outside the market here. And we need both Kansas and Missouri to be at the top of their game. That’s really important for Kansas City to reach its potential.”

ON GROWTH OPPORTUNITY MARKETS:

Nick Suarez, Newmark Grubb Zimmer: “Kansas City is a very desirable place for investors to park their money. Investors are getting pushed out from markets like Denver, Nashville and Minneapolis because they are too expensive to do business. They look at Kansas City as another alternative. I think we’re going to see that evolve in the next several years.”

Tim Cowden, KCADC: “Kansas City is so well positioned for e-commerce. We’ve been building these spec industrial buildings. Ten or 15 years ago, we didn’t see that in Kansas City.

One area that we really need more activity in is cold storage. Food is a big deal right now. We’re seeing a lot of food production operations.”

David Caffrey, COUNTRY CLUB BANK: “Network operating centers where companies store their towers or the towers are provided to them. It’s a very specialized facility that we’ve been seeing. We’re in the center of the United States, and we have every internet line coming through Kansas City.”

ON KANSAS CITY COMPETING WITH PEER CITIES:

Tim Cowden, KCADC: “I think our opportunities in Kansas City are limitless. I think we are just now getting to the point where we can compete in a legitimate way with these markets we hear all about—Nashville, Austin, Raleigh-Durham. Look at the USDA deal. That came down to Indianapolis, Raleigh-Durham and Kansas City, and they are going to be right down the street here—600 really highly paid jobs. 

There are more opportunities out there, but we have to have the product on the shelf, whether it’s Class A office, office and industrial, and then go get it.”

Tim Homburg, NSPJ: “Another thing I’d like to see for Kansas City as a whole that you see in that next tier level city is a plan on mass transportation.”

Todd LaSala, STINSON: “I think you have to be strategic and thoughtful and not panic.”

MWM's power-panel agree workforce and speed-to-market are top industrial drivers

MWM's power-panel agree workforce and speed-to-market are top industrial drivers. Here's what else the panel had to say at last week's MWM Industrial Summit:

Elli Bowen, Vice President Business Development, KC SmartPort

“More and more of our clients are coming to us with only one thing in mind at the beginning of the site selection process – workforce. They’re not interested in discussing real estate or the specific specs of the project. They provide us with their top ten job categories and want us to provide in-depth analysis on market wages, turnover rates and what’s increasing/reducing them, supply and demand numbers and more.

“They want a full picture of today’s labor force - their skill sets, where they’re coming from and how far they’re willing to travel – and proof that as a region, we’re doing what’s needed to ensure the future pipeline of talent is substantial and relevant to industry needs. Truly, workforce is the number one factor driving every industrial deal we’re touching now.”

Aaron Schlagel, Vice President of Real Estate Development, Ryan Companies

“We are running construction crews around the clock to meet the demand we have for industrial properties.  As tenant requirements become more specialized, development and construction teams like Ryan are able to move exceptionally fast to meet these demands.”

“If you want to talk about one thing that can change our entire industry, particularly in a region that’s spread out like we are, it would be autonomous vehicles.  You start removing the cost of surface parking lots, the cost of structured parking in a market like ours, it has a significant impact on everything we’re doing.  I know that this region has a lot of different opinions on it, but autonomous vehicles are coming.”

Joe Oliaro, Managing Director, Newmark Grubb Zimmer

“Prologis recently did a study comparing costs within the supply chain.  The study showed that real estate only accounts for approximately 5% of total costs across the supply chain, whereas transportation (45-55%) and labor (25-30%) makes up the vast majority of costs.  In other words, a 1% savings in labor and transportation equates to a ~15% spend in logistics real estate.  So, as costs for labor and transportation get more scarce and competitive, companies will begin to justify increased real estate/occupancy costs where they can realize greater savings.  Real estate is very much the tail wagging the dog, but also creates an opportunity for markets where property, highways and people intersect.” 

“For every billion dollar increase in online sales, you need to have 1.25 million square feet to support that growth.  E-commerce in 2018 was $517 billion which was a $77 billion increase over 2017.  That’s 96 million square feet that needs to come onto the market to support that kind of growth.” 

“I have a client who has been looking for a fleet mechanic for the last 6 months and they can’t get anyone to apply because all the fleet mechanics are working somewhere.  As soon as they come on the market, they’re snatched up.  The average age of a truck driver is 55 years old. We’ve got to step it up as a region to give incentives to younger folks to get into training programs to get their CDLs; to get into training programs where they are becoming skilled labor.” 

“When you talk about e-commerce fulfilment space, the density increases drastically.  You’re looking at 70 to 80% more employees per 1000 square feet of fulfilment space.  As e-commerce continues to grow, that demand is only going to continue to increase.  It’s a big deal and something we need to address.”

Brian Smith, President/CEO, Wagner Logistics

“We have fairly decent labor laws and a pretty good source of labor.  It’s tight now, but it’s tight everywhere across the country.   We have space, unlike the east coast or the west coast.  And, we have the open land to build which drives some of that growth.  I think all those factors contribute to companies choosing this location.  Lastly, if you’ve ever looked at a parcel map, you can ship a lot of stuff from the Kansas City area and it will get there the next day without paying for the next day rates.”

“Who bought anything online in the year 2000? Nobody did.  But they do today.  Maybe you bought from a catalog in 2000 and you expected to get it in two weeks.  Now you buy something online and you expect to get it tomorrow or maybe you expect to get it today.  Obviously, that has sped up our supply chain.”

“Kansas City is no worse than any other market so far as the labor force is concerned. We can usually find people.  We’re not struggling with that part. We can usually find people to come in and work.  The key is to keep them.  There’s a lot of turnover in the first year of employment.  We’re doing all kinds of things I never thought we’d do with people walking in the door—we’re trying to change the environment.” 

Austin Baier, Vice President, CBRE

“We’re lucky to have some good [industrial growth] drivers here.  We have e-commerce, we have great UPS and FedEx around them, we also have two of the best-selling Ford vehicles with the Transit and the F-150 and having GM in town.  Those are big drivers that are bringing people to Kansas City. Between Ford and GM, we get a lot of  3PLs (third-party logistics) that are coming to Kansas City to service them.  That creates a lot of demand for the market.”

“I think last year 60% of the deals that were done in new buildings were by parties new to Kansas City. So they’re coming to Kansas City and the first conversation they are having is: What are the statistics here for labor?  That’s the key—how do we get them to Kansas City and show them we have good labor.”

Mike Kellam, VP Business Development, McClure

“The topic of the decade is workforce.  I think that is a key point in the location of these facilities because you have to have people be able to get there and be able to work.  We constantly struggle with folks filling these jobs and then not being there regularly for transportation or other reasons.  I think there’s going to be a demand for determining sites within the 435 loop or closer to the center just from the simple fact of the workforce but also what we look at a lot is the challenges of development and utilities.”  

“I think it’s important to take stock in where we have redevelopment sites too.  There’s a lot of opportunity, greater capitalization on the use of waterways and those types of things.  There are a lot of interior sites being looked at and that’s what really intrigues me from an industrial manufacturing perspective because when you start to look at those sites, you’ve got a workforce ready site, where you’ve got people living in and around so that takes care of that transportation issue.  It makes it easier, it creates a little bit more of a community.  You might see a return to that.”